20 Apr 2024
The Washington Post | John Glaser: In aspeechTuesday at the Wilson Center in Washington, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the Trump administration is committed to addressing the totality of the Iranian threat, asking Americas allies to join us in standing up to all of Irans malign behavior, including its support for terrorist organizations and active ballistic missile development program.

He echoed President Trumpsrationalelast month for decertifying the Iran nuclear deal, an Obama-era agreement that put a lid on Irans nuclear program by imposing restrictions and a comprehensive inspections regime. Like Tillerson, Trump cited two issues that lie outside the deal: Iranssupportfor proxy groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and Houthi rebels in Yemen; and Irans development ofballistic missiles.

But the obsession with these Iranian policies amounts to threat inflation. Neither poses a serious threat to Americas domestic security or core national interests, and they dont warrant jettisoning a thus-farsuccessfulnuclear nonproliferation agreement.

As Thomas Juneau recentlyarguedin The Washington Post, Tehrans support for the Houthis is limited, and its influence in Yemen is marginal. They arent primarily Iranian proxies, but characterizing them as such serves a narrative perpetuated by the Saudi Arabian government, the Iranian regimes chief regional rival. Hamas barely holds on to power in Gaza, one of the most impoverished, densely populated and smallest slices of territory in the world.

Hezbollah, a Shiite militant group and political party based in Lebanon, functions as an Iranian proxy and has, in the past, been linked to attacks on Americans: the group was implicated in the 1996 Khobar Towers attack; in Beirut in 1983 and 1984, Hezbollah targeted the U.S. Marine Corps barracks and the U.S. Embassy annex, respectively, killing 243 Americans, attempting to force a U.S. military withdrawal. But unlike al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, theres not much today to suggest that Hamass, Hezbollahs or the Houthi rebels mission is attacking the United States.

TrumpsaysIran is the worlds leading state sponsor of terrorism, while Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.)warns that, A web of Iranian proxies threatens the stability, freedom of navigation and the territory of our partners and allies. Even though the Iran deal deliberately disaggregated Irans support for these groups from the issue of its nuclear ambitions, Trump has heaped the issues together rhetorically to argue that he has no choice but to tear the deal up.

Not only does that obfuscate the aim of the deal but it also serves to obscure the fact that the United States looks away as Irans rivals engage in behavior that is similar, or worse, than Irans. For several years now, the Saudis,with American support, have relentlessly bombed Yemen in a campaign against the Houthis that has resulted in ahumanitarian crisis. In addition to beinginvestigatedby the United Nations for war crimes, one of the consequences of the Saudis military campaign has been tobolster the positionof al-Qaedas affiliate in Yemen, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Saudi actions have had greater negative effects on U.S. interests, in terms of regional destabilization, intensification of a proxy war and the expansion of al-Qaeda, than Irans support for the Houthis.

In contrast to the regional agendas of Hamas and Hezbollah, the Saudis havelongbeenimplicatedinpromotingexactlythe kinds ofSunni militant groupsthat try to target the United States. The Islamic State, al-Qaeda and other Sunni militant groups boosted by the Saudis have perpetrated more than94 percentof deaths caused by Islamist terrorism since 2001.

If we can tolerate such behavior from an ally such as Saudi Arabia, surely Irans support for its proxies is a poor excuse for scuttling an agreement that effectively restrains an Iranian nuclear weapons program.

According to the Center for Strategicand International Studies, Iran isnot known to possessandreportedly does not seek, missiles that can reach U.S. territory. The Pentagon, as well as the U.S. Institute of Peace,haverepeatedlyassessedin recent years that Irans military posture is defensive in nature. Earlier this year, with respect to Iran, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.)said, I dont see how anyone can say America can be safe as long as you have in power a theocratic despotism. Presumably, though, Cotton makes an exception for the despotic, theocratic regime in Riyadh that enjoys bipartisan Washington support.

At any rate, Iran is profoundly unlikely to attack the United States. America possesses an overwhelming nuclear deterrent, and we remain the worlds largest economy, with a GDP50 times that of Iran. Irans annual military spending is around5 percent of oursand9 percent of its regions total. Iran has a large army around a half-million troops but cant meaningfully project power beyond the Middle East.

Indeed, Irans regional behaviors are only a threat to the United States to the extent that we continue to insist on meddling unnecessarily in a region whose strategic importance has been overstated for decades. We have thousands of troops and multiple basesin the region, and weve been in aconstant state of warthere for years with little to show for it. The prevailing strategic rationales for Americas excessive over-involvement in the Middle East defending Israel, fighting terrorism and protecting the free flow of oil dont even come close to justifying the costs of pursuing them.

Even if Iran challenges other regional powers, thats not a reason to get rid of a deal that prevents it from gaining nuclear weapons. It makes nonproliferation a more crucial security priority than ever.

Abandoning the nuclear deal doesnt make Israel any safer:Mostof Israelsmilitary and intelligence communityagreesthat facing an Iran with a nuclear program under tight inspections and limitations is better than facing an Iran with an expanding nuclear program hidden from international monitors. When it comes to Saudi Arabia, were applying a double standard. And when it comes to directly safeguarding U.S. security, weresaferwhen we dont elect to adopt the regions problems as our own.

John Glaser is director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute
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