19 Mar 2024
Saturday 21 October 2017 - 11:21
Story Code : 280168

How Moscow convinced Ankara to join Russo-Iranian axis in Syria



Sputnik - Ankara's previous foreign strategy backed by the US has proven ineffective, Turkish commentators have told Sputnik, explaining how Russia's involvement in the Syrian war prompted Turkey to reconsider its policy and join the Russo-Iranian axis. While Ankara is not going to cut off its ties with the West and NATO, their mutual distrust is growing.




Turkey's foreign policy has seen a dramatic U-Turn overthe pastfew years, which asa result has led toAnkara's rapprochement withMoscow and Tehran.

During the Arab Spring, which started in2010, the Turkish ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) maintained allied relations withthe US and Gulf monarchies. However, Russia's opposition tothe attempted regime change inSyria, and its involvement inthe conflict alongsideIran, changed the balance ofpower inthe region.

How Russia's Air Campaign inSyria Influenced Turkish Foreign Strategy
"Russia's engagement withthe Syrian process [in 2015] put [former AKP leader] Ahmet Davutoglu's foreign strategy tothe test," Ahmet Kasim Han, political scientist atthe Kadir Has University, toldSputnik Turkey, adding that Russia's actions inSyria "highlighted the weaknesses and flaws inTurkey's policy."


Thedowning ofa Russian Sukhoi Su-24M aircraftinSyrian airspace on24 November 2015 bya Turkish Air Force F-16 fighter jet haddeteriorated the Russo-Turkish relationship. In contrast toAnkara, Moscow responded not bythe use ofmilitary force butthrough diplomatic and economic measures, the political scientist stressed.

The countries' relations normalized inJune 2016 afterTurkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan apologized forthe incident. In August 2016, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia would gradually lift the economic restrictions it had imposed onTurkey.

Still, Erdogan's decision torestore ties withRussia had not been primarily influenced byMoscow's sanctions, butby the need tobalance Turkey's relations withthe West, the academic believes.

Simultaneously, Ankara, which earlier demanded that Syria's legitimate President Bashar al-Assad stepped down, considerably softened its stance towardDamascus.
"Turkey changed its [foreign] policy because ofRussia's influence, butthis is not the only reason," Hasan Kanbolat, the founder and director ofAnkara Policy Center (APM) told Sputnik. "Turkey realized that it knew little not only aboutthe countries ofthe Middle East, butalso aboutSyria."


Davutoglu believed that the Syrian issue would be resolved in3 or 6 months, buthe was proved wrong, the Turkish scholar highlighted, adding that Turkey's previous foreign strategy turned outto be ineffective.

Turkey and Iran Have Much inCommon

For his part, political scientist Baris Doster ofMarmara University believes that Turkey's decision toturn toRussia followingthe Su-24 incident paved the way forAnkara's "joining the Russo-Iranian axis inSyria."
"Turkey had made a lot ofmistakes inits Middle East policy, and only afterthat it began seeking ways forrapprochement withIran and started building bridges withthe Iraqi authorities," Doster told Sputnik.


According tothe Turkish academic, Ankara and Tehran view the Iraqi Kurdistan independence problem asa common threat because the creation ofthe new sovereign entity would result inthe partitioning ofIraq and Syria, and later Turkey and Iran.

Doster surmised that the US is the major "mastermind" behindthe Iraqi Kurdistan project, adding that the other backer ofthe Kurdish independence is Israel, Washington's longstanding ally inthe Middle East.

Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran need toteam upin the face ofthe separatism threat, no matter how deep the contradictions simmering betweenthe countries are, the Turkish political scientist underscored.

On September 25the independence referendum took place inIraqi Kurdistanwithmore than90 percent ofvoters backing the region's independence fromBaghdad. Iraqi authorities declared the referendum illegal, while Turkey and Iran criticized the Kurdish voted.

Most 'Threats Coming From the West' But Turkey Not Leaving NATO

At the same time, Doster emphasized growing tensions inrelations betweenTurkey and Western countries: the US and EU do not regard Ankara asan equal partner and exercise a double standard approach towardTurkey.

However, although Ankara has been using anti-Western rhetoric inthe pastfive years, Turkey's eventual breakup withNATO member states is unlikely, due totheir longstanding historic and economic ties, the scholar believes.
"It doesn't appear possible that Turkey would exit NATO overnight and become a full member ofthe Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)," Doster said. "Under current conditions, we are not talking aboutTurkey's withdrawal fromNATO."


Kanbolat echoed Doster, stressing that overthe past20 years Turkey has made a dramatic technological leap, which allowed it totransform froman "underdeveloped" country toa "developed" one. That might prompt Ankara toreconsider its relations withthe US and EU.
"Turkey is no longer looking helpless inthe eyes ofthe West, its strength has increased," the scholar said. "This situation forces the West tobuild relations withTurkey onthe conditions ofequality."


However, according toretired Lieutenant General Ismail Hakki Pekin, former chief ofthe Turkish General Staff Intelligence Department, one shouldn't forget that Ankara's previous erroneous foreign policy was dictated bythe West.
"Of course, it should be noted that we have not completely cut offrelations withthe West yet, butthe fact that a significant portion ofthreats toTurkey come fromthe West, has pushed Turkey tocooperate withits neighbors," the former intelligence chief said.


Recently, Ankara and Washington have found themselves amida diplomatic crisis, which has been gradually evolving sincethe attempted July 2016 coup inTurkey. As political analyst and RIA Novosti contributor Gevorg Mirzayan noted, the Turkish leadership still has suspicions that theUS could have had a hand inthe July uprising.

Furthermore, Washington is still refusing toextradite Fethullah Gulen, the founder ofthe Gulen movement (FETO) and the alleged mastermind behindthe coup attempt in2016.

The Turkey-Russia-Iran Axis is Basis forFurther Cooperation

According toPekin, if Ankara continues tomaintain relations withthe West, they will develop withinthe framework ofthe Turkey-Russia-Iran axis.
"The current conditions are pushing Turkey tocooperate withIran, Russia, and the countries ofthe region," he said. "This is a very important moment, and Turkey, which trusted NATO and got burned onit, saw that Russia and regional players should not be opposed, that it is necessary to establish new alliances and adhere tothis [new] foreign strategy."


The former intelligence chief believes that relations betweenTurkey, Russia, and Iran will continue toevolve: "Although the emergence ofthis axis was caused bytemporary circumstances, I think that it will grow intoa long-term cooperation."

The Russian-Turkish-IranianAstana formathas proven highly efficient. A series ofnegotiations onthe Syrian crisis which were kicked offin December 2016 inKazakhstan's capital have resulted inthe implementation ofthe prolonged truce inSyria and creation offour de-escalation zonesinthe country.

The Astana talks, alongwith Geneva, have become one ofthe major global platforms fornegotiations onthe settlement ofthe conflict.

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