29 Mar 2024
Tuesday 17 October 2017 - 10:18
Story Code : 279698

Experts: Nuclear deal threats won't succeed in forcing Iran to change policies



Sputnik - President Donald Trumps threat on Monday to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, will not help him achieve his goals of curbing Iranian influence throughout the Middle East region, analysts told Sputnik.




WASHINGTON (Sputnik) On Monday, Trump said the United States might unilaterally withdraw fromthe nuclear agreement despitethe other P5+1 members reaffirming their commitment toand confirmingTehran's compliance withit.

Trump made the threat even though most objective observers believe that the rules ofthe 2015 agreement are being followed bythe Tehran government.

TRUMP WILL NOT ACHIEVE RESULTS HE WANTS FROM IRAN NEW POLICY

The new US policy onIran will not succeed inforcing Tehran toabandon other policies that the US government finds objectionable, Georgetown University-Qatar School ofForeign Service Center forInternational and Regional Studies Professor Mehran Kamrava told Sputnik.
"It won't be helpful withregard toreaching most important goals," Kamrava said. "I am not convinced that they would have the tangible results the United States hopes, namely Iran's severing ofties withHezbollah, curbing Iran's ballistic missile program and changing Iranian foreign policy objectives."


Trumps policy was driven not byIran breaking the terms ofthe 2015deal, which it had not, butbecause both the president and a majority ofmembers ofCongress still did not likethe 2015 agreement negotiated bythen-President Barack Obama and his Secretary ofState John Kerry, Kamrava maintained.

"I think both Trump and Congress are eager toimpose sanctions onIran, most ofwhich had not been removed inany case. These sanctions may be limited tothe United States, and will still make international banking transactions withIran quite difficult," he said.

However, even if the United States re-imposed its economic sanctions onIran inisolation, their impact would now be very limited, Kamrava predicted.

However, interms ofactual substance, exceptfor the sale ofsome Boeing passenger planes, US-Iranian trade had not seen precipitous increases afterthe signing ofthe nuclear accord in2015," he said.

Nevertheless, Kamrava said he expected Congress tore-impose sanctions and Trump toapprove them.

"Sanctions are inexpensive toimpose, make Trump and the Congress look tough onIran, and are popular. So they will be re-imposed," he said.

It remained unlikely that such measures would have any appreciable effect onchanging Irans policies, Kamrava cautioned.

"As forwhether or not they will work, I am not convinced that they would have the tangible results the US hopes, namely Iran's severing ofties withHezbollah, curbing Iran's ballistic missile program, and changing Iranian foreign policy objectives ingeneral," he said.

TRUMP POLICY INCREASES RISK OF WAR WITH IRAN

Retired US Army Col. Doug Macgregor agreed that Trumps new policy would have little tono impact onchanging Irans policies. But it would greatly increase the dangers ofa military clash betweenthe United States and Iran, which might be backed byRussia, he warned.

"Will it lower the threshold forconfrontation withIran? No. It will raise the probability ofconfrontation withIran," he said.

Macgregor, a military historian and tactician, warned that the United States was inno military position towage a full-scale war withIran, especially if Russia supported Tehran and NATO allies refused tojoin Washington.

"If Iran fights us will Russia help Iran? Yes. Are we prepared militarily tofight a major war againstIran and Russia thousands ofmiles fromour shores, especially when the NATO allies probably wont support us or sustain us? No," he said.

Macgregor therefore advised Trump and Congress not toscrap the 2015 nuclear agreement and instead tosteadily work toreduce and then withdraw US military forces fromthe Middle East region.
"Dont decertify. Let it ride. Its time forWashington toexercise restraint, work todisengage fromMesopotamia and focus onthe home front," he said.


The United States faced far more immediate security threats it needed toprioritize onits land border withMexico and inthe Caribbean region, Macgregor warned.

"Whats happening inthe Caribbean Basin and Mexico aswell asinside our borders is far, far more important tothe American people, especially those ofus who voted forDonald Trump," he said.

Last week, Trump announced the US administration's decision not tocertify Irans compliance withthe 2015 nuclear agreement.

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