29 Mar 2024
Saturday 14 October 2017 - 10:20
Story Code : 279288

Ex-CIA official: 'Trump is wrong in reading of Iranian government and people'



Sputnik - The US President Donald Trump is not trying to provoke a war with Iran, but is seriously mistaken in believing he can pressure Tehran into renegotiating the 2015 nuclear agreement, former CIA case officer Philip Giraldi told Sputnik.




WASHINGTON (Sputnik) In a speech earlier onFriday, Trump said his administrationhas decided not torecertifythat Iran is incompliance withthe nuclear agreement, also known asthe Joint Comprehensive Plan ofAction (JCPOA).

Trump appeared toenvisage his speech asthe start ofa diplomatic process toforce Tehran torenegotiate the nuclear agreement, Giraldi observed.
"Trump clearly believes that applying more pressure onIran will force it tomake new concessions onballistic missiles and on interfering inthe region, which have nothing todo withnuclear weapons," he said.


However, Trump failed toappreciate the strongconvictions ofleaders inTehranand ofthe Iranian public onthe issue, Giraldi pointed out.

The US president "is, ofcourse, wrong inhis reading ofthe Iranian government and people. He is demanding that they abandon what they see asvital interests interms ofIranian national security," he said.

Although Trump did not want a war, he did not realize that his hard line againstTehran was playing intothe hands ofIrans enemies inthe region and oftheir political allies inthe United States, all ofwhom wanted todraw the United States intoa full scale war withIran, Giraldi warned.
"I don't think he [Trump] believes there will be a war, buthe is giving the tools tothe Israelis, Saudis and hawks inCongress tomake that happen, which is what they fervently desire," the former CIA officer said.


Giraldi predicted that Trumps speech would be followed byan escalation ofUS economic sanctions againstIranand an increased and more proactive US naval and air presence just outsideIranian territorial waters.

"I imagine that the White House would incrementally increase pressure onthe Iranians if the Mullahs do not concede inthe next two months throughthe use ofsanctions and aggressive patrolling inthe Straits ofHormuz," he said.
Any decision byTrump toapprove a more forward presence oftheUS armed forces offIranian waterswould almost certainly lead toa real or alleged incident that could rapidly escalate intoa serious crisis or a full-scale war, Giraldi predicted.


If the latter [US approval ofaggressive patrolling inthe Gulf ofHormuz region] happens, there will be an incident sure ashell that will escalate," he said.

However, there was no indication that Trump had thought throughwhat the consequences ofa war or sustained showdown withIran would be, or how towin any full scale conflict withTehran, Giraldi advised.

"As forwhat happens the day after [a war begins], I don't think he understands what winning or losing would mean inpractice," he said.

Trump had given no indication that he had studied or thought aboutthe US militarys failure tobring the ongoing conflicts inAfghanistan and Iraqtoa successful conclusion despiteso many years ofcommitment toboth ofthem, Giraldi recalled.
The president "has not grasped that we have been inAfghanistan forgoing on16 years, withIran representing a much tougher nut tocrack," he said.


Trump said inhis speech onFriday that he was directing his administration towork closely withCongress and US allies toaddress what he called the nuclear deal's "many serious flaws" so that the Iranian regime could never threaten the world withnuclear weapons.

The president also noted that Iran's nuclear agreement withthe international community will be terminated if the United States cannot fix it inCongress and withits allies.

Philip Giraldi is executive director ofthe Council forthe National Interest, a group that advocates more even-handed US government policies inthe Middle East.

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