MNA – Dr. Pastori Gianluca says the JCPOA is main success of the European diplomacy, so he doesn’t think the European Union is ready to abandon it.
According to senior US officials,President Donald Trump plans to decertify the Iran nuclear deal next week, declaring the Obama-era pact not in US interests and launching a congressional review period on the accord.
Trump is tentatively scheduled to unveil his plan during remarks a week from Thursday, though one official cautioned the timing could shift.
Trump said Thursday that Iran has not “lived up” to the spirit of the deal.
Payman Yazdani from Mehr News agency discussed the issue with political science associated professor of Milan Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, Dr. Pastori Gianluca.
Here is the text of the interview:
Some western media says Donald Trump is going to decertify Iran’s compliance with the Nuclear Deal (JCPOA). Considering the confirmation of Iran’s compliance by IAEA which is in charge of the issue, the Trump administration’s possible act will in fact mean the breach of the deal by the US. What do you think of this?
Trump’s attitude is somehow unpredictable, primarily when the relations of the United States with an international organization (such as the IAEA) are at stake. However, despite Trump’s statements, the US still sticks to the deal. I think that the administration is quite aware of the fact that breaking it could be troublesome. I am less confident about its ability to withstand the pressure exerted by parts of the Congress and the US public opinion.
If Trump breaches the JCPOA, what will be his next possible acts?
From the US point of view, a new round of sanctions is the best option. It is easy to implement and enjoys a wide, bipartisan consensus. The legal framework is still in place, and adding new provisions is not difficult. The US could also strengthen the support to their regional allies. However, in my opinion, the effort will be the re-establishment of the status quo ante, i.e. of the situation existing before the beginning of the JCPOA’s implementation phase.
Renewal of the sanctions against Iran needs the Congress approval. Will the US Congress give up to Trumps request?
On Iran, the Congress is – for many reasons –even more ‘hawkish’ than Trump. From this point of view, the problem is not persuading it to reject the JCPOA or to vote a new sanctions bill; quite the opposite, it is persuading Trump to comply with it. The President grudgingly ratified the sanctions the Congress adopted some weeks ago against Russia, Iran, and the DPRK; however, he is aware that no meaningful foreign policy can be pursued if the Congress opposes it.
Some experts like Richard Goldberg believe if the US withdraws from the JCPOA and renews Iran’s nuclear sanctions, the Europeans will follow up White House. What do you think of this?
I do not think so. Until now, the JCPOA is main success of the European diplomacy, and I do not think the European Union is ready to abandon it, especially now, when its usefulness is heavily challenged. Moreover, many European countries are currently normalizing their political and economic relations with Iran. On this assumption, I do not think that France, Italy or Germany will ever jeopardize their ambitions just to follow the US on the new path.
Interview by Payman Yazdani