29 Mar 2024
Tuesday 10 October 2017 - 10:18
Story Code : 278851

Trump's Iran gambit: The world is 'moving toward some kind of a crisis'



Sputnik - The Iran nuclear agreement won't automatically collapse if the US withdraws from the multilateral deal, Iran analyst Mahan Abedin told Radio Sputnik. However, one shouldn't underestimate Washington, since it could give EU member states an ultimatum seeking to ruin the accord, the expert said, assuming that the world is moving toward a new crisis.




Washington's unilateral withdrawal fromthe Iran nuclear deal also known asthe Joint Comprehensive Plan ofAction (JCPOA) wouldn't mean that the agreement will fall apart asa result, Mahan Abedin, Iran analyst atMiddle East Eye and director ofresearch group Dysart Consulting, told Radio Sputnik.
"Even if [US President Donald Trump] invalidates the deal this doesn't necessarily spell the end ofthe deal," Abedin emphasized.


The Washington Post reported Thursday citing White House sources thatTrump may declare Iran noncompliant withthe JCPOAand "decertify" the deal. Last week the US president signaled that Tehran "has not lived upto the spirit" ofthe nuclear accord and accused the latter ofsupporting terrorism and exporting "violence, bloodshed and chaos acrossthe Middle East."

In accordance withthe 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA), the US administration has tocertify its commitment tothe deal every 90 days. The next deadline is October 15.

Abedin recalled that if the US president decertifies the agreement, Congress has 60 days tore-impose major sanctions againstIran.
Only when the restrictions come intoforce again, it will mean the US is outof the JCPOA, the expert noted, adding that "even then this is not necessarily the end ofthe deal."


Abedin drew attention tothe fact that the 2015 nuclear agreement is a "multilateral" accord, which was concluded bythe P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States), the European Union (EU) and Iran.

"Obviously, the US is the most important component of [the deal], butnevertheless even if the US is noncompliant withit and formally [exits the deal] it will not spell the end ofthe JCPOA," the expert said.

On Saturday, speaking ata ceremony atTehran University, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani stated that the US president cannot undermine the deal.
"In the nuclear negotiations and agreement we reached issues and benefits that are not reversible. No one can turn that back, not Mr. Trump or anyone else," Rouhani said asquotedbyReuters.


The Iranian president underscored that the JCPOA serves the best interests ofthe US aswell. Commenting onRouhani's notion, Abedin suggested that if Washington withdraws fromthe deal and the old status quo is reinstated, the US would face not one, buttwo major nuclear crises inNorth Korea and Iran.

On the other hand, according tothe expert, the Iranian leadership is very much concerned aboutthe potential collapse ofthe nuclear deal, asit could undermine the Rouhani cabinet's internal positions.

Will EU Major States Remain Committed toJCPOA?

At the same time it's not quite clear how the EU member states will behave incase the US rip the nuclear accord up.
According toAbedin, the Germans and the French, and toa lesser extent Britons, are highly interested inre-entering the Iranian market: "The French, forinstance, are investing heavily inthe automotive industry and [holding] major negotiations withthe oil and natural gas industry." He recalled that many business delegates have visited Iran inthe pasttwo few years fromEU countries.


Still, although the EU regards Iran asa huge and lucrative market, "all these major European companies and their governments have been kind oftentative overthe pasttwo and a half years," the expert noted, adding that if "the US pulls outof the deal and makes an ultimatum toglobal companies [they] and their governments would be ina very difficult situation."
"So, I do think that we are moving towardsome kind ofa crisis and the warming business climate inIran may start tofreeze overagain, unfortunately," Abedin concluded.


MeanwhileBerlin called uponthe US torefrain fromwithdrawing the agreementamidrumors ofa possible US exit fueled byPresident Donald Trump's statements.

German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel called attention tothe International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)'s recent reports showing that Tehran is compliant withthe nuclear accord.

Gabriel noted that the US exit fromthe JCPOA may deteriorate the North Korean crisis sincePyongyang is unlikely toagree tosome sort ofa nuclear deal if a similar one withTehran fails.

According tothe German foreign minister, France and Britain are also urging Trump toremain committed tothe agreement.

For its part, the Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed hope thatthe Iranian nuclear accord will be further implementeddespitereports abouta possible US withdrawal fromthe deal.

Commenting onthe issue, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned thatWashington's potential move would have negative consequences.

The Future ofthe JCPOA is inCongress's Hands

While weighing the pros and cons ofTrump's possible decision, the US mainstream media alleged that the withdrawal fromthe deal wouldn't be aseasy asit seems.

AccordingtoThe Financial Times, "under INARA rules, only Congressional leadership can initiate snapback sanctions underexpedited procedures," incase Trump decertifies the deal.

Interestingly enough, while the Democrats unanimously oppose Trump's potential decision, there is no unity amongthe Republicans aboutthe matter.

The Washington Post alsoassumesRepublican Iran hawks don't have "the support they need topush something through" inCongress. The media outlet cited the fact that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Republican Sens. Jeff Flake (Ariz.), John McCain (Ariz.) and Susan Collins (Maine) signaled they were not sure whether they will vote forthe re-imposition ofsanctions, while Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Edward R. Royce (Calif.) stated clearly that they don't think Trump should exit the JCPOA.
Citing the proponents ofdecertification, the media outlet alleged that "the Trump administration can use the process asa way ofpersuading European allies tojoin the United States inadvocating fora stronger Iran deal," which may envisage tough restrictions onTehran's ballistic and cruise missile programs inparticular.



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