29 Mar 2024
Wednesday 16 August 2017 - 10:56
Story Code : 272501

Iran engaging in game of brinkmanship, unlikely to withdraw from nuclear deal



Sputnik - Iran is not likely to pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), but both Washington and Tehran appear to be willing to take dangerous risks to reach their goals, experts told Sputnik.




MOSCOW (Sputnik) Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said onTuesday that Iran could "reach a status much better thanthe status atthe time beforethe negotiations" if the United States expanded sanctions againstTehran.

In July, the United States announced unilateral sanctions on18 Iranian entities and individuals overTehran's support ofthe Syrian government aswell asits alleged testing ofballistic missiles. In early August, US President Donald Trump signed intolaw new sanctions onIran, Russia and North Korea.

In 2015, Iran, five permanent members ofthe UN Security Council and Germany, agreed onthe JCPOA, known asthe Iran nuclear deal, which lifted nuclear-related sanctions imposed onIran inexchange forthe assurance that Tehran would not expand its nuclear program beyondpeaceful purposes.

UNLIKELY DEVELOPMENT

According toDr. Christopher Davidson, an associate professor inMiddle East Politics atDurham Universitys School ofGovernment and International Affairs, Tehran is not likely toactually withdraw fromthe deal and Rouhani's statement is probably a bluff.
"Iran, I think, is very unlikely towithdraw fromthe deal. Rouhani is making a calculated, and entirely reasonably bluff onthe basis that numerous European, US, and other multinationals have now travelled significant distance inmaking significant inroads intonew Iranian opportunities," Davidson told Sputnik.


The expert said that the United States and Iran appeared tobe "engaging ina game ofbrinkmanship." According tohim, Washington needed toshow toits allies inthe region, including Riyadh, that it was "tough" onIran, butthe United States and Iran both realized that the nuclear deal was good forbusiness, so neither was likely towillingly lose these advantages.

Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow atthe Middle East Institute, also called Iranian withdrawal unlikely and suggested that the strongly worded statement was meant forthe Iranian people rather thanthe international community.
"I think this is mostly fordomestic consumption inIran. I dont think the Iranian President has any intentions ofwalking away fromthis nuclear deal. What he would love tosee is the United States tounilaterally walk fromthe deal," Vatanka said.


The expert said that Iran would have a lot tolose if it were risking the return ofinternational sanctions, while incase that was taken outof the equation, Tehran's potential withdrawal would be less ofa risk.
"But I still dont think this Iranian regime right now is going todash fora nuclear bomb even if they were undersanctions I dont think they will do that," Vatanka said.


Director ofMiddle East Nonproliferation Program inJames Martin Center forNonproliferation Studies Dr. Chen Kane told Sputnik that the withdrawal was unlikely sinceIran had "everything tolose and nothing togain fromwithdrawing."

"Both sides, the US and Iran want tobe able toblame the other side if the agreement would fail and right now they play Chicken Game withrhetorical statements," Kane said.

Dr. Robert Standish Norris, a senior fellow fornuclear policy ofFederation ofAmerican Scientists suggested that Trump might be the first towithdraw.

"If there is withdrawal the Iranians will return todeveloping a bomb asquickly aspossible," Norris said.

POLITICAL TENSIONS, BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES

Davidson said that the relations betweenIran and the United States would remain "highly strained, atleast ona government-to-government basis, and inpublic." However, according tothe expert, the ties betweenmultinational corporations and their prospective partners inIran would only deepen asthe two sides would focus onrewarding opportunities.

According toVatanka, the United States did not seem tohave a strategy onIran and aslong asthat did not change, the nuclear deal would remain safe.

"I think the Iranians will certainly stick toit. And I think despitethe threats expressed byPresident Trump the White House fornow has so much else that it needs todo," the expert said.

Kane said it was important topay attention tohow Iranian compliance withthe deal conditions was verified.
"For the future, it is important toobserve whether the Trump administration will not re-certify that Iran is complying withthe agreement withoutsolid evidence or whether Iran is trying tohinder the inspection regime," Kane said.


Earlier inthe day Russian senator Igor Morozov told Sputnik that Russia might convene a meeting withthe United States, China, France, the United Kingdom and Germany toaddress concerns overthe Iran's nuclear deal. The senator added that Russia would try toconvince Iran tomaintain the status quo.

Under the 2015 deal, Iran had tosignificantly reduce its uranium stockpile, convert its Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant tomake it suitable forother uses and cut downthe number ofcentrifuges used forthe enrichment atFordow and Natanz facilities. Iran may only carry outresearch and development atNatanz.

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