19 Apr 2024
Tuesday 1 August 2017 - 12:19
Story Code : 270580

Will Tehran deliver on its threat to tear up agreement not to build nukes?

Sputnik - Tehran has signaled its readiness to abandon the Iranian nuclear deal if its implementation runs counter to the country's interests. In this vein, experts wonder whether Iran could return to developing nuclear weapons.

Late last week, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Tehran will withdraw fromthe Joint Comprehensive Plan ofAction (JCPOA) "as soon asit feels that the advantages ofthe nuclear deal fall behindits costs and disadvantages," according tothe Tasnim news agency.

The JCPOA, which was clinched inJuly 2015, lifts nuclear-related sanctions imposed onIran inexchange forassurances that Tehran's nuclear program will remain peaceful. According tothe deal, the sides also agreed torefrain frompolicies intended toaffect Iran's trade and economic relations.
"The Islamic Republic ofIran will honor the JCPOA aslong asit enjoys the benefits ofthe JCPOA," Araghchi was quoted byTasnim assaying.


The JCPOA, which was agreed uponin July 2015, prompted Russia and other countries tolift nuclear-related sanctions. Araghchi also said that Washington is trying towithdraw fromthe JCPOA and blame Tehran.

[US President Donald] Trump and the US asa whole are trying topull outof the nuclear deal while shoving all ofthe costs ofthe accords failure onIran," Araghchi was quoted assaying bythe Mehr news agency.

During the election campaign and afterbecoming US president, Trump repeatedly promised toreview the Iran nuclear deal and slammed the administration offormer US President Barack Obama forsigning the agreement inthe first place.

Experts, meanwhile, said inseparateinterviews withRTthat neither Iran nor the United States would liketo unilaterally withdraw fromthe JCPOA.Despite Trump's harsh criticism ofthe deal, Washington continues tobe a party tothis agreement.

Russian expert onthe Middle East Irina Fyodorova recalled that the Iranian nuclear deal was not approved bythe Congress and was enacted bydecree offormer US President Obama, making it only valid for180 days.
"At the end ofthis period, the US needed either toextend the deal or withdraw fromit. Trump extended it foranother 180 days. In this regard, stern rhetoric and real actions related tothis agreement differ fromeach other inAmerican politics," Fyodorova told RT.


She recalled that apart fromthe US and Iran, the JCPOA involves Russia, Britain, France, Germany and China. Washington's unilateral withdrawal fromthe deal would not only surprised Moscow and Beijing, butwould also complicate the White House's relations withits NATO allies.
"If the US withdraws fromthe JCPOA withoutconsulting its allies, it will undermine US credibility amongEuropeans," Fyodorova said.


She added that "European countries need toquickly restore their positions inIran which is why they are upin arms againstany abolition ofthe agreement onthe Iran nuclear program."
"In this regard, Iran is also very unwilling towithdraw fromthis agreement because if it does so, its hopes forobtaining high-tech investments fromEuropean countries would be undermined," Fyodorova pointed out.


She was echoed byRussian Oriental expert Said Gafurov, who said inan interview withRT that "we should not take this [Araghchi's] statement asa preparation forwithdrawing fromthe agreement."
"Iran always has such an opportunity, butit really does not want tospend money onthe nuclear missile program, because this is a vulnerable, expensive and very dangerous thing inIran, which has repeatedly been hit byearthquakes," Gafurov said, adding that Iran "does not really need a nuclear bomb, although technologically they can make it."


"We should see this statement asan instrument touse inthe domestic political struggle and a leverage toexert pressure onthe Americans," Gafurov said. His stance was shared byFedorova, who said that Iran threatening towithdraw fromthe "nuclear deal" should not be understood literally.

According toGafurov, Araghchi's statement was first and foremost addressed tothe Israeli lobby inthe United States which is mainly responsible fora whole array ofthe anti-Iranian sanctions endorsed bythe US President and Congress.

Gafurov noted that it is the Israeli lobby that is now pushing fora new package ofthe anti-Iran sanctions ina bid todamage the interests ofthe country Israel views asits arch-foe inthe region. But their position may change if, asa result ofUS pressure, Iran decides tobegin the production ofnuclear weapons, according toGafurov.
"They are now demanding sanctions againstIran, butif Tehran starts making [nuclear] bombs, they will say: 'Don't introduce the sanctions and let's avoid the bombs," Gafurov said, referring to "a typical Iranian manner ofdiplomacy aimed atturning the enemy intoa friend."


Touching uponthe economic aspect ofthe anti-Iranian sanctions, Gafurov said that these restrictive measures have no effect onthe extraction or sale ofIranian oil. He recalled that "Iran is constantly increasing its oil exports while underthe sanctions."

"Europeans are extremely interested indeveloping [oil trade] operations withIran. Americans can suppress this drive butit will cost them a lot ofblood. Additionally, there are China and India which need Iranian oil, and the US will be unable toforce them tojoin the anti-Iranian sanctions," he added.

Fedorova inturn suggested that "in the future, the United States may slap new sanctions onIran withoutwithdrawing fromthe JCPOA."
"The ultimate goal is todrive Iran outof the [global] oil market," Fyodorova said, adding that "this is not a short-term prospect."

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