Bourse and Bazaar– As the one-year anniversary of Implementation Day approaches, a new survey has found that nearly two-thirds of Americans oppose withdrawing from the Iran Deal.
The survey, conducted by the University of Maryland Program for Public Consultation, which has conducted extensive public opinion research on both American and Iranian views on the Iran Deal, presented respondents with the main terms of the JCPOA nuclear deal and asked them to evaluate the best course for US policy.
The survey focused in particular on the idea that the United States should withdraw from the Iran Deal, and then seek to renegotiate its terms, a course of action proposed by President-Elect Trump during his campaign.
Across the board, respondents expressed doubt that Iran would agree to renegotiate the deal. A total of 69% of respondents, reflecting 75% of surveyed Democrats and 64% of Republicans, felt Iran’s cooperation was unlikely, even if the rest of the P5+1 came onboard.
Interestingly, while Democrats and Independents felt that the low likelihood of success made renegotiation untenable, with 86% of Democrats and 58% of Independents giving a “final recommendation” to continue with the Iran Deal, just 40% of Republicans came to the same conclusion.
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Overall, of the sample of nearly 3,000 respondents contacted in late December of 2016, a significant 64% felt that the US should maintain its commitments to the Iran Deal under the existing terms.
Steven Kull, director of the center that conducted the study, considered the results to be clear. “Though President-elect Trump campaigned on ripping up the deal and seeking to negotiate a better one, the majority of Americans would rather continue with the deal as long as Iran continues to comply with its terms,” he stated.
Importantly, renegotiating the Iran Deal did not feature in Trump’s promised actions for his first 100-days in office. This may reflect an understanding in the incoming administration renegotiation of the deal is not a priority for the American electorate, and when presented with the facts, most Americans feel that renegotiation is unlikely to lead to a better deal.
For deal supporters, the findings are encouraging and suggest that further public outreach about the deal and its benefits can help protect its political viability as Trump enters the White House.