28 Mar 2024
Monday 26 December 2016 - 09:19
Story Code : 244348

'Moscow troika': Russia, Iran, Turkey nearing solution to Syrian crisis

Sputnik- On Tuesday, the foreign ministers of Russia, Iran and Turkey discussed the situation in Syria, including Aleppo, in Moscow on Tuesday. Russia, Iran and Turkey agreed a joint statement to revive the political process to end the conflict in Syria.

Russia, Iran, Turkey Negotiating onSyria According toRussian top diplomat Sergei Lavrov, the three countries want tohelp Damascus and the Syrian opposition tocome toan agreement. They will also act asa guarantor ofthis agreement. "Such an agreement is likely toinclude preserving Syrian territorial integrity and keeping Damascuss control overthe main regions. It may also presume a coalition government withpro-Turkish groups inIdlib," Gevorg Mirzayan, a lecturer atthe Financial University underthe Government ofRussia, wrote ina piece forRIA Novosti.

But beforesuch an agreement is possible the ranks ofthe Syrian opposition must be cleared ofIslamists, likeal-Nusra Front and many other radical groups.

"But the summit inMoscow vividly illustrated the new power dynamics aroundSyria, asformer rivals Russia and Turkey sat acrossthe table fromeach other while the US was not even invited tothe talks," an article in Daily Telegraph noted. The Kremlin said that it would welcome all interested parties atthe negotiating table. "We are not close forcontacts withall other countries. We are inviting them tojoin the processes that, aswe believe, have a positive potential," Lavrov noted.

But such cooperation can be possible only if other players observe the terms set bythe "troika" ofMoscow, Tehran and Ankara, according toMirzayan.

"There should be no 'secular' Nusra, 'illegitimate' Damascus and attempts ofa ceasefire tohelp militants. No one will change the rules," the author noted. According toLavrov, the "Moscow troika" is the most efficient format toresolve the Syrian crisis.

The Middle East Without the US? Mirzayan noted that the implementation ofthe new format ofSyrian settlement may create certain difficulties forthe United States. First, the deal may create a situation inthe Middle East inwhich Washingtons efforts inthe region will become unnecessary. "Regional players will deal withall regional issues. Meanwhile, Russia will play the role ofa mediator betweenthem," the article read.

Second, the deal is unlikely tobe welcomed byUS allies inthe region, including Israel, Saudi Arabia and Kurds.

According tothe author, the above-mentioned groups offactors imply that the US could be interested inundermining the newly-established troika. But this assumption could prove correct only if Washington continues its foreign policy inthe Middle East. "But If [new US President] Donald Trump focuses onUS domestic problems the troika deal could even play inthe hands ofWashington. Russia, Iran and Turkey will be responsible forSyria and the fight againstDaesh. As a result, Trump will be able tofocus onthe situation inEast Asia," Mirzayan suggested. What Iran Gains From the Deal According tothe author, Tehran is the biggest beneficiaries fromthe agreement. Tehran managed toprotect Syria and exclude Turkey fromthe anti-Assad front.

Syria will continue toplay the role ofTehrans close ally. But the main achievement is that Tehran managed toprevent a full-fledged intervention ofSyria and stop the Syrian conflict intoa Sunni-Shia war, according tothe article.

However, the author noted, that Turkey also has nothing tocomplain about. "Ankara was losing its military adventure inSyria. Its plan totopple Assad was unrealistic. Syrian militants demanded more and more money fromTurkey.

Its southeastern regions are now flooded withrefugees," Mirzayan wrote. The deal withRussia and Iran will help Turkey tofind a way outof the conflict. Moreover, this deal will give Ankara certain control overthe situation inSyria afterthe war. The troika cooperation will also prevent establishing a vast Kurdish autonomy innorthern Syria. Moscow's Role inthe Deal To some extent, the new format seems tobe ambiguous forRussia, according toMirzayan. On the one hand, it can be regarded asvictory.

The Kremlin settled the issue ofAnkaras involvement inthe Syrian war and established a negotiating format toresolve the crisis. "This format could help Russia consolidate its allies inthe region forreal efforts againstDaesh.

If Raqqa is liberated Russia would emerge victorious inSyria," the author pointed out. On the other hand, bymaking the troika deal, Russia decided forthe first tolead the process and bear responsibility forthe results. "If the deal works Russia would emerge asa constructive peacemaker inthe Middle East. But if not this would deal a heavy blow toRussias reputation inthe global politics," Mirzayan concluded.
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