November 13, The Iran Project – Although Donald Trump’s election will change America’s current policies, due to its psychological impact; Iran’s economy will also be affected negatively in short term.
After months of campaigning, Donald Trump won the November 8 US presidential election and his democratic rival Hillary Clinton congratulated his victory and somehow confirmed his presidency.
The world shocked by Trump’s victory
Trump’s victory shocked many in the world and had a different impact on the world markets. The question is how will be the US policy towards the other countries under Trump’s presidency?
It seems that during the election campaign, candidates act emotionally and immaturely; they do whatever they can to win the votes and the election. Donald Trump is also not an exception; he did everything to win the presidency but in the US, it is the system that makes the final decision not the person.
So, a president, whether Democrat or Republican, has to obey the original system of America where different lobby groups, including Israeli and Arabic lobbies, oil mafia, environmental groups and even those who support US relation with Iran can play a significant role in the president’s decisions.
Trump will change like Ronald Reagan and Boris Johnson
US relations with the rest of the world will not change dramatically since presidents will show different policies after coming to power, like actor-turned politician, Ronald Reagan who was changed greatly after the election victory.
Also, before holding a governmental position, Boris Johnson was criticized for his hostile behavior but as soon as he was appointed as the British Foreign Secretary, the UK system turned him to a more disciplined person who did not behave like the past so we should probably wait for a new Donald Trump.
The effect of Donald Trump’s election on the world’s markets is a psychological one that will return to the former state over time.
Compared to Republicans, Democrats have a more hard-line stance against Iran
History shows that Republicans have had a more hard-line stance against Iran compared to Democrats, so the US overall pressure on Iran will be the same as the past but some specific pressures, like impeding visa issuance, applying new sanctions, preventing American companies to participate in Iran’s market, etc. will somehow be increased comparing to the past 8 years.
Iran put all of its eggs in the basket of JCPOA
With Trump’s election, there will be more obstacles to implement the JCPOA (also called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). And as the Congressional Republicans have the same view as President-elect Donald Trump, new and different sanctions will be applied against the Islamic Republic and Rouhani’s government will have a tougher time.
Negative psychological impacts on the currency market, the Iranian economic activists and even foreigners who eager to cooperate with Iran are among the other potential problems of Trump’s election.
It seems that increasing the exchange rate will drive up the price of imported consumer goods which in turn put more pressure on consumers and increase the inflation.
Reality is different from prediction
At the same time, it should be said that those who have negative attitudes towards Trump’s election, considering it a threat to Iran, are just predicting and since one of Trump’s top features is being unpredictable, his election may have a positive impact on Iran.
Future will say what direction the US-Iran relations will go. In the meantime, Iran’s presidential election is another pivotal factor which will be held in seven months.