In the Iraqi political system, the parliamentary election also means forming new government and picking new prime minister. The provincial councils are granted fairly adequate powers including choosing the governor and other provincial authorities.
As the provincial elections date is drawing close, the registration of the participant parties as well as voter registration started in the country by the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC). On June 11, 2016, the current PM Haider al-Abadi and Nouri al-Maliki, the former PM of Iraq registered as voters. Additionally, different parties are encouraging and inviting their fans to register and vote in the upcoming elections. For example, the Iraqi Islamic Party, a Sunni political party, has called the tribal leaders and social figures to encourage people to register for voting.
The provincial councils elections are also of significance and are not less significant than the parliamentary elections. As it is set to be held before the parliamentary vote, the provincial elections in fact prepares the grounds for the legislative election. Having in mind that in the provincial elections the competitions are in fact inside the Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish parties in their specific regions, the race to get more votes to beat the rival parties gets very warm.
With this background, it must be noted that as religious and ethnic identity saw a boost during the three earlier elections, the Iraqi political and administrative scene now witnesses a considerable presence of the three major Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish coalitions of respectively National Iraqi Alliance, Unity Alliance of Iraq, and the Democratic Patriotic Alliance of Kurdistan. At the same time, each of these major coalitions lacks internal consistency. The founding parties are seeing serious differences and gaps between them. They seek finding allies out of their current coalitions to make deal with them. Furthermore, the relations between different parties operating under the three coalitions in different times have proved fluctuating and have not followed an orderly pattern. So, for the new period rise of new orders in the Iraqi politics is expected.
Despite plenty of changes in stances of the parties and formation of different coalitions in each elections, the final results always showed that the Shiite parties won the majority. But because of need to two thirds of the votes of the lawmakers for electing president and doing some other tasks according to the constitution, the Shiites need to coalesce with other sides like the Kurds or Sunnis to form government. Practically, in past three elections, the three major parliamentary coalitions distributed the governing bodies between them. Meanwhile, the leading post, namely the prime minister post, is given to Islamic Dawa Party, a fairly old party in Iraq.
A considerable feature of the past elections was growth in the number of participant parties compared to the earlier periods. In the latest elections, too, this number has increased again, in a way that the number of registered parties is unnaturally abnormal.
Although the new political parties law was approved in 2015, but due to failure in full implementation of law, inadequate political and security control by the government, and interventions of foreign players, some parties very likely go under dependence to foreign sides.
In 2006 parliamentary election, 152 political parties competed for 275 seats in the House of Representatives, another name for parliament. In 2010, 181 contenders entered race for 325 seats, as in 2014, 277 parties fought for 325 parliamentary seats. In 2016, the number of registered parties has touched 300.
For provincial elections according to the IHEC 86 parties have registered so far, 45 of them are old parties and also took part in past elections. 41 parties are announced newcomers. The registration process goes in line with the 2015-approved political parties' law.
In the period before every elections the parties intensify efforts to form larger coalitions and attract further dependent parties. These moves also appear as campaigns for new elections begin. As Nouri al-Maliki, the secretary general of Islamic Dawa Party and head of State of Law Coalition said on June 11, the State of Law Coalition is reviewing plans to get new allies, and is aiming at broadening its circle in order to include independent figures as well as other small and big parties.
One of the characteristics of new election is that it is set to be held in a time that ISIS terrorist group has under control parts of Iraqi territories, and at the same time a large part of the Sunni population is displaced. On the other side, a large part of areas over which the central government and the Kurdish regional government are in dispute are now controlled by the Kurdish government. However, the seized territories are expected to be liberated from ISIS grasp before elections.
Public Mobilization Forces (PMF) enter race
The very significant thing about the new election in comparison to the earlier periods is entry of a new politico-military force, the PMF. After nearly three years of its foundation, the PMF has managed to make considerable gains in anti-ISIS battles. It has made sacrifices, including many dead and injured fighters, and proved itself as a pure and qualified paramilitary force to win popularity among people. Now many people set hopes on PMF in post-ISIS political period in the country.
Although some PMF partners like Badr Organization were present in past elections, due to increased number of the organizations and a boost in their social base, their participation in new electoral rivalries will take new and different shape. If the key founding organizations of PMF actively join the election races, they will turn into a leading Shiite camp that very likely will lead the other existing parties.
It seems that the participation of the PMF's founding organizations will take place under new names because the PMF is a security organization and the law bans it from election participation. This is confirmed by both IHEC as well as the PMF committee.
In recent weeks, the entry of founding organizations of PMF to the race of election and their registration in IHEC made headlines in the Iraqi media. According to a media report, up to August, 12, 2016 over 40 political parties registered to take part in 2017 elections, most of them were reported to be representatives of partner organizations of PMF. One of the organizations is Saraya al-Khorasani whose deputy chief Hamed Jazayeri has announced his group's registration for the elections.
So far, the PMF founding organizations have stayed out of the politics and only fought in anti-terror battlefields; therefore, they enjoyed popularity and strong social base. Their entry to elections will naturally face people's well reception and positive opinions. But it must be noted that due to ongoing political and social crises and problems, entry of a new political force to administration and lawmaking will lead to its reduction of popularity. On the other side, entry of jihadi figures in government posts to some degree will make them seeking power, and so after some time will lose distinction and so will be like the other political figures in the eyes of people. The existing political parties seek attracting the popular military organizations to take advantage of their popularity. Furthermore, getting into electoral race will put the forces in front of each other.
By Alwaght
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