18 Apr 2024
Monday 1 February 2016 - 10:38
Story Code : 198771

Iran-Saudi Arabia confrontation and conclusions

Iran-Saudi Arabia confrontation and conclusions
Tehran, January27, The Iran Project During the two years after President Rouhani took the office in 2013, Saudi Arabia adopted an aggressive approach toward Iran, blocking ways for any possible engagement.

One of the root causes of the Saudi hostile policies is the fear of restoring Iran's power and influence in the current regional political equations. Along with this fear, Saudi Arabia failed to undermine Iran in majority of the proxy conflicts, witnessing the rising power of the resistance axis which is currently involved in a war against Israeli-Takfiri coalition in Syria ground.

Planning of subversive plots during the 2015 Geneva talks to reach a nuclear agreement, making attempts to cause deliberate damage to Iran's regional ties, bribing to get Sudan to sever ties with Iran, warning Lebanese army to reject Iran's military aid, all-out support of the terrorist front in Syria to overthrow a regional close ally of Iran are all among the measures taken by Saudi leadership thathighlights the above- mentioned fear.

On the top of these efforts is the Riyadh plot to hurt Iran through sending the flow of cheap oil to Iran's regular customerwhich has resulted in the lowest price in eleven years.

The Saudi government moves didn't stopped here. Few days later it came to directly confront Iran through the execution of Shia prominent leader, Sheikh Nimr, on early January that sparked angry Iranians' reactions which went beyond the diplomatic norms.

Iranian rage was used later as a pretext for Saudi to form an anti-Iranian regional coalition and was subsequently followed by further economic and military threats against Iran.

But what are the options ahead of Iran to deal with Riyadh hostile moves and threats?

Direct military confrontation

Given the fact that the Middle East wouldn't bear any further war, Iran-Saudi Arabia direct encounter is already an ill-fated project. In case of the Saudi military attack against Iran, however, none of the kingdom's regional allies will likely join the conflict and the capital, Riyadh, and cities other than Shia towns and holy cities of Mecca and Medina will be targeted by Iran's launch-ready missiles.

Moreover, Iran's air defense would leave no room for Saudi warplanes, with hired pilots aswhat has been seen during Yemen aggression, to hover in Iran's sky, paralyzing the majority of Saudi military bases during no more than first two days of the military operation.

This is also for sure that Iran would never preempt in war with Saudi Arabia. It takes, though, almost ten minutes for Iran to respond intensely to even poor Saudi encroachment since Iran's missiles have already targeted the strategic locations at the Saudi Arabia soil.

Regional encounter

Saudi Arabia is surrounded by the militia groups who are ready to inflict a severe blow upon receiving any militaryaggression. Al-Nojaba Islamic resistance movement in Iraq that already announced readiness to retaliate the Saudi interference in Iraq is an example of these groups.

Soon they receive Iran's permit or signal of willingness, the factions wouldn't waste time to severely attack against the oil monarch, inflicting insufferable economic damages on Riyadh.

Above all, the powerful presence of Lebanese Hezbollah, the most leading militant group that already experienced the bitter taste of Saudi weapons, will leave no need to any other forces' involvement when the war is declared.

To wrap up, Tehran doesn't see any preference regarding either of the options, thinking solely reducing tensions with Riyadh in the path forward. But on the other side, there are Saudi officials who keep making provocative remarks against Iran, inflaming the fire of another bloody war in the region. The tragedy about Saudi royal family is that they make wise choice when it is too late, a reality which pushes the old-aged kingdom to the edge of destruction.

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