Tehran, October 13, The Iran Project –The potential scenarios analysis for the future of Syria is of special importance due to its advantages for the involving countries’ decision making. One of the possible scenarios is that the Syria crisis spills over into Israel, the one which will be examined in the following analysis.
While the Syrian war approaches its fourth year, Russia practically began to launch the airstrikes campaigns against the Assad government’s foes. Despite the US led coalition’s failure in Iraq, thanks to the Russia military operations in Syria, the government and its allies now have a stronger position than a few months ago and partially managed to reverse the recent gains by terrorists.
Israel Intervention and Hezbollah response
It is clear that Israel is standing together with Turkey and the Arab monarchies against the government, there is, however, evidence in favor of Israel alliance with terrorist rebels in Syria. In addition to Israel logistic support and close contacts to the rebels, since early 2013 Israeli government has officially authorized the hospitals to provide the medical treatments to the Syrian wounded fighters. Moreover, Israel has regularly shelled the government’s positions inside Syria which eased the terrorists’ anti-government operations.
However, despite such involvement in Syria, Israel has no interest in large-scale confrontation with Hezbollah and Iran. Although Tel-Aviv regime has once bombed Hezbollah and Iran’s advisory convoys, it instantly apologized, showing restraint after Hezbollah retaliatory move.
As a strategic plateau, the Golan Heights is important to ensure the north of Israel security. This means that the area protection is a top priority for the regime particularly after the huge oil reserve discovery. Thus, refraining from being drawn into the war in Syria and developing a military buffer zone are the approaches Israel has pursued in the past years.
As the axis of resistance, made up of Iran, Syria and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, is preoccupied with other problems in Syria, releasing Golan from Israel occupation doesn’t seem a top priority. However, if Israel encroachment in Syria gains momentum, the axis is unlikely to sit idly by.
Hezbollah deployment in Israel; a nightmare
Given the sophisticated and long-range missiles, Hezbollah will strike back if Israeli attack inside Syria continues. This may lead to the deployment of Hezbollah ground troops inside Israel. In this case, Tel-Aviv has to confront the battlefield expertise that Hezbollah has gained through the combat against the Takfiri terrorists in Syria.
The other key consideration here is that in order to restrain Hezbollah, Israel may count on United States to resort to Iran. However, the fact that Hezbollah is independently a regional actor may diminish this chance.
In the case of conflict spillover into Israel, there must be two possible solutions ahead of Tel-Aviv. It either agrees the ceasefire, losing parts of its territory or it may continue to a war in which it undoubtedly wouldn’t be the winner.